In basketball, betting the chalk or favorite team can be a profitable venture. After all, the favorite is expected to win so it would make sense that they come out on top more often than not. Though this might be the case, how and when one bets the favored team can impact or affect one’s profits when betting on basketball.

For starters, a favorite is best bet at home. This is because teams generally perform much better at home than they do on the road. Thus, one would reasonably assume that the favored home team to be more likely to live up to expectations than they would on the road. While this is the general rule, we need to determine how best to bet on a home team that is favored in the betting line.

In basketball betting, the lines are stated in two different fashions. The two ways lines in basketball are posted are the money line and the point spread. In point spread betting, the favorite team spots the underdog a certain number of points. For example, suppose the Cleveland Cavaliers are playing at home against the Orlando Magic. The Cavs are listed as a 5 point favorite in the morning line. The point spread line for this basketball game would read as follows:

Cleveland Cavaliers -5 vs. Orlando Magic +5.

Additionally, the money line for the same game would read the following way:

Cleveland Cavaliers -210 vs. Orlando Magic +180.

The money line suggests that we would need to wager $210 to win $100 when we bet on the Cavs at home in this match. If we bet via the point spread, the Cavs must win by a margin greater than five points. If we are determined to bet this match up and take the Cavs, how should we bet?

When betting a game where the home team is favored by 5 to 5.5 points, the favorite wins straight up 71% of the time. By comparison, the home team favored by 5 to 5.5 points covers the basketball odds point spread only 56% of the time. However, a bettor must consider that he is wagering more than $100 to win $100 in this instance when he bets the money line. However, when crunching the numbers, the bettor can expect an average return of over 9.5% when betting the money line on a home team favored by 5-5.5 points. By comparison, when betting using the point spread in this same scenario, a bettor can expect a ROI of 7.8% throughout their basketball betting career when betting the favorite at home. As a result, the more profitable play is to bet the favorite at home using the money line.